Bayesian Updating Rules in Continuous Opinion Dynamics Models

Details Bayesian Updating Rules in Continuous Opinion Dynamics Models Bayesian Updating Rules in Continuous Opinion Dynamics Models

2008-07-31

arxiv.org/abs/0807.4972v1

Journal of Statistical Mechanics. Theory and Experiment, v. 2009, p. P02017, 2009

Physics

Physics and Society

14 pages, 5 figures, presented at SigmaPhi2008

Scientific paper

10.1088/1742-5468/2009/02/P02017

In this article, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling social agents in the case of continuos opinions models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable $x$, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a Uniform distribution. This represents the idea the other agent might have no idea about what he is talking about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied. and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the Bounded Confidence models. By also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

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