Physics – Data Analysis – Statistics and Probability
Scientific paper
2009-01-26
Physics
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
RevTeX4, 14 pages, 6 figures; v2 new title, improvements and corrections, more on Bayesian inference with example in cosmology
Scientific paper
We discuss epistemological and methodological aspects of the Bayesian approach in astrophysics and cosmology. The introduction to the Bayesian framework is given for a further discussion concerning the Bayesian inference in physics. The interplay between the modern cosmology, Bayesian statistics, and philosophy of science is presented. We consider paradoxes of confirmation, like Goodman's paradox, appearing in the Bayesian theory of confirmation. As in Goodman's paradox the Bayesian inference is susceptible to some epistemic limitations in the logic of induction. However Goodman's paradox applied to cosmological hypotheses seems to be resolved due to the evolutionary character of cosmology and accumulation new empirical evidences. We argue that the Bayesian framework is useful in the context of falsificability of quantum cosmological models, as well as contemporary dark energy and dark matter problem.
Mielczarek Jakub
Szydlowski Marek
Tambor Pawel
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