Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa51b0246k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA51B-0246
Mathematics
Probability
2494 Instruments And Techniques, 2704 Auroral Phenomena (2407), 0815 Informal Education
Scientific paper
European Space Agency is currently supporting 17 Service Development Activities (SDA) within its Space Weather Pilot Project. Auroras Now!, one of the SDAs, has been operated during November 2003 - March 2004 as its pilot season. The service includes a public part freely accessible in Internet (http://aurora.fmi.fi) and a private part visible only to the customers of two hotels in the Finnish Lapland through the hotels' internal TV-systems. The nowcasting system is based on the magnetic recordings of two geophysical observatories, Sodankylä (SOD, MLAT ~64 N) and Nurmijärvi (NUR, MLAT ~57 N). The probability of auroral occurrence is continuously characterised with an empirically determined three-level scale. The index is updated once per hour and based on the magnetic field variations recorded at the observatories. During dark hours the near-real time auroral images acquired at SOD are displayed. The hotel service also includes cloudiness predictions for the coming night. During the pilot season the reliability of the three-level magnetic alarm system was weekly evaluated by comparing its prediction with auroral observations by the nearby all-sky camera. Successful hits and failures were scored according to predetermined rules. The highest credit points when it managed to spot auroras in a timely manner and predict their brightness correctly. Maximum penalty points were given when the alarm missed clear bright auroras lasting for more than one hour. In this presentation we analyse the results of the evaluation, present some ideas to further sharpen the procedure, and discuss more generally the correlation between local auroral and magnetic activity.
Blanco Ariel
Kauristie Kirsti
Ketola Anneli
Malkki Anssi
Nevanlinna Heikki
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