Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters

Details Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters

Jan 2012

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012georl..3902801t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 39, Issue 2, CiteID L02801

Mathematics

Logic

Atmospheric Processes: Convective Processes, Natural Hazards: Atmospheric (0370, 3322, 3339), Natural Hazards: Statistical Analysis (1984, 1986)

Scientific paper

Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.

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