Asperity distribution and percolation as fundamentals of an earthquake cycle

Details Asperity distribution and percolation as fundamentals of an earthquake cycle Asperity distribution and percolation as fundamentals of an earthquake cycle

Dec 1989

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1989pepi...58..277t&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 58, Issue 4, p. 277-288.

Physics

10

Scientific paper

A seismic cycle model is proposed, based on the existence of an asperity space-strength distribution along the fault plane and the applicability of the percolation theory to earthquakes, as suggested by Vrancea seismotectonic data. Two seismic regions, somewhat decoupled, are emphasized in the lower lithosphere, roughly between 80 and 110 km and between 120 and 170 km depth, and an asperity magnitude quasi-independent dimension of 0.3-0.4 km is determined for small to moderate earthquakes. Accordingly, two concepts are introduced: (1) the active zone-a distinct fault region able to generate a major earthquake by percolation, and characterized by a specific background seismicity, total area, and maximum possible magnitude; (2) the asperity cell-an elementary local stress inhomogeneity of an active zone, generating weak to moderate events.
Percolation requires the presence of a critical stress-free surface (44% of the active zone area). The model explains the non-linearity of the frequency-magnitude relationship, and enables the estimation of the major earthquake magnitude domain in each zone. The computed maximum possible magnitudes are Mw = 7.6 and Mw = 7.8, respectively. In agreement with historical data, a complex form of the recurrence period of earthquakes in the major magnitude domain is determined, ranging from about 40 to 100 years, irrespective of the seismic zone. It follows that the seismic activity per unit area is invariant in both zones. This result is considered to be a consequence of an intrinsic material property: the scale invariance of the fragmentation process in the lithospheric material. Different aspects related to the discrete structure of the active zone and the fractal dimension of faulting are also discussed from the point of view of this model.

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