Arrival time of coronal mass ejections

Details Arrival time of coronal mass ejections Arrival time of coronal mass ejections

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.506..177m&link_type=abstract

In: Solar variability: from core to outer frontiers. The 10th European Solar Physics Meeting, 9 - 14 September 2002, Prague, Cze

Physics

Solar Physics, Space Weather, Cmes

Scientific paper

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), originating near the disk center, cause the severest geomagnetic storms. Thus, estimation of the arrival of magnetic clouds in the Earth vicinity is very important in space weather investigation. We describe an empirical model to predict the 1 AU arrival time of CMEs. This model is based on the effective acceleration described by Gopalswamy et. al (2000). It was improved by considering halo CMEs for which the space velocities are determined. This allowed us to receive the more accurate estimations. The new model reduces the average prediction error from ≍10 to ≍5 hours.

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