Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

Details Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

2008-11-12

arxiv.org/abs/0811.1855v2

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

18 pages including 5 figures, 1 table, and appendices Accepted on 27 August 2009 to Climatic Change

Scientific paper

10.1007/s10584-009-9717-9

Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c. The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production - or p times g - through a time-independent factor of 9.7 +/- 0.3 milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.

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