Are megaquakes clustered?

Details Are megaquakes clustered? Are megaquakes clustered?

2012-03-05

arxiv.org/abs/1203.1031v1

Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06308, 2012

Physics

Geophysics

5 pages, 5 figures

Scientific paper

10.1029/2012GL051465

We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the statistical significance of these results by simulating a large number of synthetic random catalogs. We find that in general, the earthquake record cannot be distinguished from a process that is random in time. This conclusion holds whether aftershocks are removed or not, except at magnitudes below M = 7.3. At long time intervals (T = 2-5 years), we find that statistically significant clustering is present in the catalog for lower magnitude thresholds (M = 7-7.2). However, this clustering is due to a large number of earthquakes on record in the early part of the 20th century, when magnitudes are less certain.

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