Are Main-Belt Asteroids a Sufficient Source for the Earth-Approaching Asteroids?

Physics

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Scientific paper

This paper predicts the size distribution of the Earth-approaching asteroids with diameter d = 10 m to 10 km, assuming they originate as the fragments of main-belt asteroids with a cumulative size distribution proportional to d^-2.5 and that they have self-similar fragmentation properties. The resulting distribution is dominated by ``fast-track'' bodies originating from parent asteroids with orbits close to the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. Because the dynamical lifetimes of these Earth approachers are shorter than their collisional lifetimes, their size distribution is nearly proportional to d^-3.0, the production distribution in the main belt. This prediction, however, is at odds with the Spacewatch observations. The observed distribution is relatively flat for d > ~100 m, and relatively steep for d < ~100 m, so that the number of Earth approachers with d ~ 10 m to 0.3 km is overestimated. If these populations are predominantly of main-belt origin, then the size distribution in the main belt is not a simple power law. A nonuniform size distribution with wave-like oscillations, possibly caused by a cutoff at small sizes, would lead to Earth approachers with a size distribution in better agreement with the observations. If such wave-like oscillations are realistic, then the main belt is sufficient to supply the observed number of Earth approachers throughout the observed size range.

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