Appropriateness of correlated first order auto-regressive processes for modeling daily temperature records

Physics – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

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Accepted for publication in Physica A

Scientific paper

10.1016/j.physa.2005.12.042

The present study investigates linear and volatile (nonlinear) correlations of first-order autoregressive process with uncorrelated AR (1) and long-range correlated CAR (1) Gaussian innovations as a function of the process parameter ($\theta$). In the light of recent findings \cite{jano}, we discuss the choice of CAR (1) in modeling daily temperature records. We demonstrate that while CAR (1) is able to capture linear correlations it is unable to capture nonlinear (volatile) correlations in daily temperature records.

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