Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

Details Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling Applying Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

Dec 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsm34a..01g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SM34A-01

Physics

2100 Interplanetary Physics, 2400 Ionosphere (6929), 2700 Magnetospheric Physics (6939), 7900 Space Weather

Scientific paper

The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) has developed three forecast models (FMs) for the Sun-Earth chain. They have been matured by various degrees toward the operational stage. The Sun-Earth FM suite comprises empirical and physical models: the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude (AP-FM), the Solar Wind (SW- FM), and the Geospace (GS-FM) models. We give a brief overview of these forecast models and touch briefly on the associated validation studies. We demonstrate the utility of the models: AP-FM supporting the operations of the AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) mission soon after launch; SW-FM providing assistance with the interpretation of the STEREO beacon data; and GS-FM combining model and observed data to characterize the aurora borealis. We will then discuss space weather tools in a more general sense, point out where the current capabilities and shortcomings are, and conclude with a look forward to what areas need improvement to facilitate better real-time forecasts.

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