Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe

Physics

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Evolution Of The Atmosphere (1610, 8125), Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Global Change: Regional Climate Change

Scientific paper

Europe's temperature increases considerably faster than the northern hemisphere average. Detailed month-by-month analyses show temperature and humidity changes for individual months that are similar for all Europe, indicating large-scale weather patterns uniformly influencing temperature. However, superimposed to these changes a strong west-east gradient is observed for all months. The gradual temperature and humidity increases from west to east are not related to circulation but must be due to non-uniform water vapour feedback. Surface radiation measurements in central Europe manifest anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback, enhancing the forcing and temperature rise by about a factor of three. Solar radiation decreases and changing cloud amounts show small net radiative effects. However, high correlation of increasing cloud-free longwave downward radiation with temperature (r = 0.99) and absolute humidity (r = 0.89), and high correlation between ERA-40 integrated water vapor and CRU surface temperature changes (r = 0.84), demonstrates greenhouse forcing with strong water vapor feedback.

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