Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Branching Processes Relevant to Earthquakes

Details Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Branching Processes Relevant to Earthquakes Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Branching Processes Relevant to Earthquakes

2004-04-04

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0404019v1

Phys. Rev. E 70, 046123 (2004)

Physics

Geophysics

16 pages + 4 figures

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevE.70.046123

We consider a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (``aftershocks''). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (``productivity'' or ``fertility''), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime where the distribution of fertilities $\mu$ is characterized by a power law $\sim 1/\mu^{1+\gamma}$ and the bare Omori law for the memory of previous triggering mothers decays slowly as $\sim 1/t^{1+\theta}$, with $0 < \theta <1$ relevant for earthquakes. Using the tool of generating probability functions and a quasistatic approximation which is shown to be exact asymptotically for large durations, we show that the density distribution of total aftershock lifetimes scales as $\sim 1/t^{1+\theta/\gamma}$ when the average branching ratio is critical ($n=1$). The coefficient $1<\gamma = b/\alpha<2$ quantifies the interplay between the exponent $b \approx 1$ of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution $ \sim 10^{-bm}$ and the increase $\sim 10^{\alpha m}$ of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude $m$ (productivity) with $\alpha \approx 0.8$. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother and a long memory.

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