Annual persistence in observed and modelled UK precipitation

Physics – Geophysics

Scientific paper

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Mathematical Geophysics: Fractals And Multifractals, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation

Scientific paper

This paper examines the correlation structure of inter-decadal precipitation variability across the UK by using a scaling analysis technique. The level of persistence displayed by the observations between different types of precipitation is remarkably constant. Comparison with synthetic long-memory time series suggests that the behavior of the observed precipitation is consistent with a scaling process. The Hadley Center HadCM2 model captures some of the observed behavior, but underestimates the degree of persistence in all precipitation intensities. The scaling analysis method is a useful diagnostic to test for climate model variability.

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