Analyses of the Recent Space Weather Events Using a Suite of Models and Observations

Details Analyses of the Recent Space Weather Events Using a Suite of Models and Observations Analyses of the Recent Space Weather Events Using a Suite of Models and Observations

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm31b1866z&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM31B-1866

Physics

[2101] Interplanetary Physics / Coronal Mass Ejections, [2139] Interplanetary Physics / Interplanetary Shocks, [2455] Ionosphere / Particle Precipitation, [2720] Magnetospheric Physics / Energetic Particles: Trapped

Scientific paper

The full chain of physical processes in the Sun-Earth system is extremely complex. In this presentation, we illustrate how we can use a suite of models, residing at CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), along with available observations, to understand the initiation, evolution and interaction of solar disturbances and their consequences for the near-Earth region/other planets. In addition, we will show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address national space weather needs by providing forecasting/nowcasting capabilities of significant space weather events. We will focus on two events that occurred in the year of 2010: the 3-6 April event that potentially caused the failure of the Galaxy 15 spacecraft, and the 1-5 August event that received broad media attention worldwide. The main models that we are going to use include the WSA+ENLIL+Cone model covering the Sun to 1 AU of interplanetary space, SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework) for the Earth's bowshock and magnetosphere, RBE for assessing the near-Earth radiation environment and auroral models for characterizing particle precipitation at the ionosphere.

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