An Ionospheric Metric Study Using Operational Models

Details An Ionospheric Metric Study Using Operational Models An Ionospheric Metric Study Using Operational Models

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsa52a..04s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SA52A-04

Physics

2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2494 Instruments And Techniques, 6929 Ionospheric Physics (1240, 2400), 7900 Space Weather

Scientific paper

One of the outstanding challenges in upgrading ionospheric operational models is quantifying their improvement. This challenge is not necessarily an absolute accuracy one, but rather answering the question, "Is the newest operational model an improvement over its predecessor under operational scenarios?" There are few documented cases where ionospheric models are compared either with each other or against "ground truth". For example a CEDAR workshop team, PRIMO, spent almost a decade carrying out a models comparison with ionosonde and incoherent scatter radar measurements from the Millstone Hill, Massachusetts location [Anderson et al.,1998]. The result of this study was that all models were different and specific conditions could be found when each was the "best" model. Similarly, a National Space Weather Metrics ionospheric challenge was held and results were presented at a National Space Weather meeting. The results were again found to be open to interpretation, and issues with the value of the specific metrics were raised (Fuller-Rowell, private communication, 2003). Hence, unlike the tropospheric weather community, who have established metrics and exercised them on new models over many decades to quantify improvement, the ionospheric community has not yet settled on a metric of both scientific and operational value. We report on a study in which metrics were used to compare various forms of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), the Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM), and the Utah State University Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements Model (USU-GAIM) models. The ground truth for this study was a group of 11 ionosonde data sets taken between 20 March and 19 April 2004. The metric parameter was the ionosphere's critical frequency. The metric was referenced to the IRI. Hence, the study addressed the specific question what improvement does IFM and USU-GAIM have over IRI. Both strengths (improvements) and weaknesses of these models are discussed. These discussions address both scientific merit as well as operational considerations.

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