An improved forecast system for relativistic electrons in Earth's outer radiation belt

Details An improved forecast system for relativistic electrons in Earth's outer radiation belt An improved forecast system for relativistic electrons in Earth's outer radiation belt

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm54a..06t&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM54A-06

Physics

[2774] Magnetospheric Physics / Radiation Belts, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

As society becomes more dependent on satellite systems for navigation, communication, defense, and weather prediction, accurate forecasts of Earth's outer radiation belt electrons become ever more important to help mitigate risk to spacecraft in orbits that go through this hazardous region. Currently, outer radiation belt forecast models are only for daily-averaged fluxes (or fluence) at geosynchronous orbit (GEO), yet due to the nature of Earth's asymmetric magnetosphere, with its compressed dayside and stretched nightside, a spacecraft in GEO encounters a wide range of fluxes at different local times. Also, many of the existing forecasts are single-point dependent; that is, they rely on one spacecraft at the L1 point in the Sun-Earth system for upstream measurements of the solar wind. Here, we introduce a recently developed system of forecast models for outer radiation belt electrons that are currently running in real-time. This system includes several different forecast models, including one that is independent of solar wind measurements. It also incorporates a new technique to forecast fluxes at each local hour around GEO, and an innovative method to extend several of the forecasts out to +6 days. We conclude with a discussion of how data reanalysis techniques can be incorporated to extend forecasts to other L-shells.

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