An explanation for the lack of trend in the hurricane frequency

Details An explanation for the lack of trend in the hurricane frequency An explanation for the lack of trend in the hurricane frequency

2006-03-23

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0603195v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

14 pages and 4 figues: Figure 1a-c; Figure 2; Figure 3a-b; Figure 4a-b

Scientific paper

The proposition that the tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the warm pool, the area enclosed by the 26C SST isotherm, is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. A non-linear relationship of high statistical significance is found between the area and the number of cyclones, which may explain both why there is no linear trend in the number of cyclones over time and the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

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