An Ensemble Forecast for Geosynchronous Radiation Belt Fluxes

Details An Ensemble Forecast for Geosynchronous Radiation Belt Fluxes An Ensemble Forecast for Geosynchronous Radiation Belt Fluxes

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1763n&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1763

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2774] Magnetospheric Physics / Radiation Belts

Scientific paper

Steven Nelson1, 2, Shawn Young1, Kara Perry1, 3, Alan Ling1, 4, Xinlin Li5 1. Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Division 2. University of New Mexico 3. Institute of Scientific Research, Boston College 4. Atmosphere and Environmental Research Inc. 5. University of Colorado An ensemble model composed of three functional forecasting models has been developed to forecast >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. The REFM model is based on a statistical link between electron flux and solar wind speed using empirically derived linear filter coefficients, the Li model solves a radial diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that is a function of the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field, and the fluxpred model is a multi-layer feed-forward neural network with electron flux and Kp as input. A multivariate regression is done on these three independent forecasting methods to produce significantly better predictive results than any of the individual models alone. We will discuss our regression technique, our efforts to optimize it, and we will discuss our calculation of forecast probability.

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