An Empirical Solar Wind Forecast Model From The Chromosphere

Physics

Scientific paper

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2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 7507 Chromosphere, 7511 Coronal Holes, 7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

Recently, we [McIntosh and Leamon, ApJL, 624, 117, 2005] correlated the inferred topography of the solar chromospheric plasma with in situ solar wind velocity and composition data measured at 1~AU. Specifically, the measured separation in height of the TRACE 1600Å\ and 1700Å\ UV band pass filters correlate very strongly with solar wind velocity and inversely with the ratio of ionic oxygen (O^{7+/O^{6+}}) densities. Here, we build on our previous results by presenting initial results of a model developed to so predict interplanetary solar wind conditions, using SOHO/MDI magnetograms with 96 minute cadence as proxies of chromospheric topography as input. Specifically, we use the observed correlation between the measured chromospheric travel-time and the magnetic field strength to allow us to convert the into a (reasonable) full-disk travel-time diagnostic (in place of limited field of view TRACE observations). Maps of full-disk travel-time are scaled to wind diagnostic maps which are then "forward" mapped into the heliosphere using a PFSS model. The resulting wind forecast matches the observed state of the solar wind remarkably well for a simple model.

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