An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone

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Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Constituent Sources And Sinks, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Evolution Of The Atmosphere (1610, 8125), Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Troposphere: Composition And Chemistry, Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325)

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We simulate atmospheric composition changes in response to increased methane and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions from the preindustrial to present-day in a coupled chemistry-aerosol-climate model. The global annual average composition response to all emission changes is within 10% of the sum of the responses to individual emissions types, a more policy-relevant quantity. This small non-linearity between emission types permits attribution of past global mean methane and ozone radiative forcings to specific emissions despite the well-known non-linear response to emissions of a single type. The emissions-based view indicates that methane emissions have contributed a forcing of ~0.8-0.9 W m-2, nearly double the abundance-based value, while the forcing from other ozone precursors has been quite small (~-0.1 for NOx, ~0.2 for CO + VOCs).

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