An Analytical Model to Predict the Arrival Time of Interplanetary CMEs

Details An Analytical Model to Predict the Arrival Time of Interplanetary CMEs An Analytical Model to Predict the Arrival Time of Interplanetary CMEs

Feb 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010soph..261..311s&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 261, Issue 2, pp.311-320

Physics

Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes)

Scientific paper

Referring to the aerodynamic drag force, we present an analytical model to predict the arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). All related calculations are based on the expression for the deceleration of fast CMEs in the interplanetary medium (ICMEs), dot{v}=-1/15 700(v-V_{SW})2 , where V SW is the solar wind speed. The results can reproduce well the observations of three typical parameters: the initial speed of the CME, the speed of the ICME at 1 AU and the transit time. Our simple model reveals that the drag acceleration should be really the essential feature of the interplanetary motion of CMEs, as suggested by Vršnak and Gopalswamy ( J. Geophys. Res. 107, 1019, 2002).

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