Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3303701w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 3, CiteID L03701
Physics
25
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change: Cryospheric Change (0776), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Radiative Processes
Scientific paper
A group of twelve IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4) climate models have Arctic (60N-90N) warmings that are, on average, 1.9 times greater than their global warmings at the time of CO2 doubling in 1%/year CO2 increase experiments. Forcings and feedbacks that impact the warming response are estimated for both Arctic and global regions based on standard model diagnostics. Fitting a zero-dimensional energy balance model to each region, an expression is derived that gives the Arctic amplification as a function of these forcings and feedbacks. Contributing to Arctic amplification are the Arctic-global differences in surface albedo feedback (SAF), longwave feedback and the net top-of-atmosphere flux forcing (the sum of the surface flux and the atmospheric heat transport convergence). The doubled CO2 forcing and non-SAF shortwave feedback oppose Arctic amplification. SAF is shown to be a contributing, but not a dominating, factor in the simulated Arctic amplification and its intermodel variation.
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