Physics
Scientific paper
Jul 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3314707f&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 14, CiteID L14707
Physics
9
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
Scientific paper
Studies attempting to constrain climate sensitivity, or equilibrium surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, by comparing models with observations report a wide range of distributions, particularly regarding the upper bound. There is, by contrast, a considerable consensus surrounding the transient climate response, in large part because it is directly related to observed warming attributable to greenhouse gases. We argue that scenarios which can exploit this consensus may be preferable to stabilization scenarios for practical policy-making purposes. The difficulty of ruling out a high equilibrium warming response to elevated carbon dioxide levels may provide an opportunity for reassessment of the stabilization scenario as the centerpiece of climate policy in favour of scenarios that are more directly constrained by the transient response.
Allen Meghan Rose
Frame D. J.
Stone Douglas A.
Stott Peter A.
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