Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 1985
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985orli...15..353s&link_type=abstract
Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere, Volume 15, Issue 4, pp.353-363
Physics
Scientific paper
We first suggest that the air-sea interactions and the air-land interactions are the most important mechanisms for thechanges in the atmosphere-ocean-biosphere system at the time-scales of 10-1 102 years. Due to very wide range of space and time-scales at which these interactions operate, and because of their nonlinearities, considerable interannual fluctuations can be produced even without any external (or anthropogenic) forcing. We present some examples of the observed changes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface properties and describe the abilities and limitations of our current models to simulate these changes. We propose a method for calculating the ‘natural variability’ of the atmosphere-ocean-biosphere system and suggest possible techniques for detecting the changes caused by external anthropogenic factors. It is obvious that we are going to be limited in our ability to detect the changes due to external or anthropogenic factors unless we clearly understand the structure and the magnitude of the natural variability of the atmosphere-ocean-biosphere system. We further suggest that much before we are faced with the problems of global habitability, there will be severe problems of regional habitability. This occurs either due to regional nature of the forcing functions or amplified regional response of a global forcing function.
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