Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3208704k&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 8, CiteID L08704
Physics
46
Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes (3339, 4504), Biogeosciences: Climate Dynamics (1620), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Oceanography: General: Benthic Boundary Layers, Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology
Scientific paper
Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence solely of the atmosphere reacting to the ocean. It is becoming increasingly evident that the Indian monsoon is suitably described as a fully coupled ocean-land-atmospheric system, though implications for skill have not been demonstrated. We discover significant improvements in the skill of Indian monsoon predictions when atmospheric models are not constrained by specified observed SSTs in the Indian Ocean warm pool region. Evidence comes from intercomparing 50-years of monsoon skill in atmospheric models using specified SSTs with skill in coupled ocean atmosphere models.
Hoerling Martin
Krishna Kumar K.
Rajagopalan Balaji
No associations
LandOfFree
Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-972494