Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum

Details Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum

Feb 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3603707k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 3, CiteID L03707

Physics

15

Cryosphere: Sea Ice (4540), Cryosphere: Modeling, Global Change: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), Global Change: Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912), Oceanography: General: Arctic And Antarctic Oceanography (9310, 9315)

Scientific paper

The past two decades saw a steady decrease of summer Arctic sea ice extent. The 2007 value was yet considerably lower than expected from extrapolating the long-term trend. We present a quantitative analysis of this extraordinary event based on the adjoint of a coupled ocean-sea ice model. This new approach allows to efficiently assess the sensitivity of the ice-covered area in September 2007 with respect to any potential influence factor. We can trace back 86% of the ice area reduction to only four of these factors: May and June wind conditions, September 2-meter temperature, and March ice thickness. Two thirds of the reduction are determined by factors that are already known at the end of June, suggesting a high potential for an early prediction.

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