Adaptive Prediction of Radiation Belt Electrons with the Extended Kalman Filter

Details Adaptive Prediction of Radiation Belt Electrons with the Extended Kalman Filter Adaptive Prediction of Radiation Belt Electrons with the Extended Kalman Filter

Dec 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufmsm51b0526r&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #SM51B-0526

Physics

2720 Energetic Particles, Trapped, 2722 Forecasting, 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

We use an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) in an adaptive system identification scheme to estimate the time-varying coefficients of multichannel linear prediction filters. This makes it possible to track the non-linear response of relativistic electrons to changing solar wind inputs using simple linear models. These non-time-stationary response profiles provide a unique, and potentially enlightening, view of the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the solar wind-driven dynamics governing the Earth's radiation belts. Namely, one is able to more easily identify a variety of time-dependencies (from solar rotation to solar cycle scales) in the coupling efficiency between the solar wind and radiation belt electrons than can help confirm or refute existing physical theories.

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