Physics
Scientific paper
Sep 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002pepi..132...39k&link_type=abstract
Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 132, Issue 1-3, p. 39-58.
Physics
7
Scientific paper
A great earthquake is expected to occur along the Suruga Trough where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the Eurasian plate. We estimate crustal deformation prior to this hypothetical earthquake, called the Tokai earthquake, based on a simulation model for plate subduction, a three-dimensional extension of the models by Stuart (1988) and Kato and Hirasawa (1996). In this model, the time evolution of a dislocation field in an elastic half-space is governed by a quasi-static interaction induced by the dislocation field itself as well as by a rate- and state-dependent friction law acting on the plate interface. Observed geophysical constraints taken into account are the shapes of the curved subducting plate interface, the recurrence interval of past great earthquakes (/~= 90-150 years), the average seismic coupling coefficient (/~=0.5), the annual rate of level change (/~=5mm/year) between the two bench marks at Hamaoka and Kakegawa, and the backslip distribution on the plate interface estimated from the result of GPS observation. The simulation shows the following. The occurrence of great earthquakes is approximately periodic. During interseismic times, a strongly coupled region is formed in a seismic zone, and it shrinks as the next great earthquake approaches. The strongly coupled region is confined to an area where the plate inclination is gentle. The rupture of the earthquake starts at a point close to the maximum shear stress acting on the plate boundary. Subsidence of Hamaoka relative to Kakegawa changes to uplift several years before the earthquake. Volumetric strain undergoes a change from compression to extension, or vice versa, at certain observation sites several years before the earthquake. Changes in volumetric strain accelerate as the occurrence of the earthquake impends. The maximum strain change for 1 day observed on the ground surface just before the earthquake is 10-8 to 10-7, a value about one-tenth of the value predicted by a related two-dimensional model. The pattern of shear stress accumulation and the location of the preslip are affected by the shape of the plate interface.
Ito Hidemi M.
Kuroki Hidekuni
Yoshida Akio
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