A statistical study of the evolution of the orbits of long-period comets

Details A statistical study of the evolution of the orbits of long-period comets A statistical study of the evolution of the orbits of long-period comets

May 1979

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1979mnras.187..445y&link_type=abstract

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol. 187, May 1979, p. 445-462. Research supported by the Ministry of Educat

Mathematics

Probability

37

Comets, Orbit Calculation, Orbit Perturbation, Statistical Analysis, Energy Distribution, Long Term Effects, Monte Carlo Method, Normal Density Functions, Perihelions, Probability Distribution Functions, Comets, Orbits, Evolution, Origin, Capture, Perihelion, Energy, Monte Carlo Technique, Perturbations, Planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Periodic Comets

Scientific paper

The effect of planetary perturbations on the population of long-period comets is investigated. The distribution of comet lifetimes in the presence of physical disintegration is studied by using Hammersley's (1961) method. The distribution of the number of perihelion passages before escape from the solar system is calculated theoretically and compared with a Monte Carlo result. The temporal variation of the distribution of cometary binding energies is also examined. It is shown that with reasonable values of the probability with which a comet ceases to exist at each approach to perihelion, more than 90% of comets are expelled from the solar system within 3 million yr. The probability that comets remain in the solar system is found to be asymptotically proportional to the inverse square root of the number of perihelion passages.

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