Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa31b..06a&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA31B-06
Mathematics
Probability
2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 2407 Auroral Ionosphere (2704), 2704 Auroral Phenomena (2407), 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions
Scientific paper
We present in this work a statistical study of the Auroral Eletroject (AE) index response to solar wind magnetic interplanetary structures over the entire observational period (1964-2003). The structures studied were magnetic clouds (MCs, 170 events), corotating interaction regions (CIRs, 727 events) and interplanetary shocks (830 events). The geoeffectiveness of these structures was assessed in terms of the geomagnetic AE peak value within 2 days after the interplanetary structure had passed near Earth's orbit. We have found that the probability to have moderate or intense AE activity after MCs, shocks and CIRs is 94.8%, 82.6% and 85.3%, respectively. Finally, from empirical frequency distributions, a theoretical probability function for AE peak values for each one of the main interplanetary structure were obtained. This gives the probability of every interplanetary structure being followed by intense, moderate, weak, or quiet (none) magnetic activity levels. The knowledge of probability distribution is important in schemes to forecast space weather conditions after the detection, by in situ solar wind observations, of an interplanetary structure approaching Earth.
Alves Maria Virginia
Echer Ezequiel
Gonzalez Walter D.
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