A statistical analysis on sunspot-groups correlated to M and X flares

Physics

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Sunspot-Groups, Flares, Space Weather

Scientific paper

Very energetic flares and Coronal Mass Ejections may have important consequences on Space Weather and Earth magnetosphere. In the last years, thanks to theoretical modelling, ground based and satellite observations, the comprehension of flares and CME has greatly improved. Nevertheless, it is not yet possible to surely forecast whether and when an active region may give rise to these events. In this context, we have focussed our attention on the possibility to identify the most favourable conditions an active region must develop in order to be flare-productive. We have therefore used data on sunspot-groups (INAF-Catania Astrophysical Observatory and NOAA reports) during the period January 1998 - April 2002, and data on very energetic flares (M and X) obtained in the soft X-ray range by GOES 8, in order to define the characteristics of several parameters which may indicate whether an active region is going to produce a flare.

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