A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August

Details A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August

Aug 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3816710k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 16, CiteID L16710

Physics

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology, Natural Hazards: Statistical Analysis (1984, 1986), Geographic Location: Atlantic Ocean

Scientific paper

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has issued seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early August since 1984. This paper proposes a simplified scheme, using a combination of two surface predictors selected from the newly-developed Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as well as a dynamical forecast for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These three predictors in combination explain approximately 72% of the cross-validated variance in post-1 August Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity over the hindcast period from 1982-2010. While uncertainties in the data grow as one goes back further in time, all three predictor correlations remain significant with NTC when tested on data from 1900-1981. These predictors are also shown to correlate with August-October physical features across the Atlantic Main Development region known to impact hurricane activity.

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