A Sensitivity Study Using ENLIL Solar Wind And Cone CME Model

Physics

Scientific paper

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7513 Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), 7900 Space Weather, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

We perform a parametric study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched into the inner heliosphere using the 3D ENLIL numerical solar wind model together with the Cone model. The cone model is a simple geometrical model that uses a cone shape to characterize the angular width and the central position of a halo CME. For this study, the CMEs are launched into an idealized ambient solar wind background at different locations with respect to the streamer belt. We investigate the sensitivity of the ENLIL + Cone model to CMEs with varying densities, launch speeds and sizes, to small variations in launch direction, and to grid resolution. We compare the properties of the ICMEs arriving at 1 AU from different vantage points (including the Sun- Earth line) such as their shock strengths and propagation times. This research is part of an ongoing effort to validate the WSA/ENLIL model and is supported by the Air Force Research Lab Space Vehicles Directorate.

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