A Riccati model for Denmark Strait overflow variability

Physics

Scientific paper

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Oceanography: General: Analytical Modeling And Laboratory Experiments, Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513), Oceanography: General: Ocean Observing Systems

Scientific paper

A controlled volume box model of the western basins of the Nordic Seas for water denser than 1027.8 kg m-3 is constructed, where accumulation in volume ($\frac{dV}{dt) is driven by net imbalances between prescribed net inflow from the northern, eastern and top boundaries (Qs) and hydraulically limited outflow through the Denmark Strait. The resulting Riccati equation is solved analytically for filling and flushing experiments with constant Qs and numerically for stochastic forcing Qs(t). For small perturbations to Qs with white noise spectrum, the overflow response is red noise with a time scale between 5 and 15 years depending on the mean interface height and area. For Qs proportional to the NAO index, the overflow is positively correlated with the NAO. A 140 years integration reveals variations in the overflow between 2.5 Sv in the 1970s and a maximum of 4 Sv in the 1990s. Hydraulic transport calculations from hydrographic data north of Iceland show good agreement with the model hindcast.

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