A Real-Time Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System

Details A Real-Time Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System A Real-Time Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsh31a0696d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SH31A-0696

Physics

2100 Interplanetary Physics, 7843 Numerical Simulation Studies

Scientific paper

The Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System (HHMS) is a combination of existing models linked together to predict solar wind conditions at Earth and associated geomagnetic activity from solar observations. The HHMS consists of four models, two physics based and two empirical, hence the term hybrid. The primary input driving the system is daily magnetograms composed into global magnetic maps of the solar photosphere. These maps are used as input to the Potential Field Source Surface model of Wang and Sheeley. The output source surface maps are modified using the Current Sheet Model of Ken Shatten. The resulting Source Surface Current Sheet (SSCS) maps are used (via an intervening empirical translation model) to drive a time dependent 3D numerical MHD solar wind model. The solar wind model gives a predicted time series of solar wind and IMF (MHD parameters) at Earth and is verified using satellite measurements such as from Omni, Wind and ACE. Subsequent empirical (data based) models can use the predicted MHD time series at Earth to predict space weather effects such as the Ap and Dst indices, geosynchronous magnetopause crossings, and relativistic (killer) electron fluxes in geosynchronous orbit. Verification of HHMS predicted Ap indices against historical observations will be shown. The MHD time series at Earth could also be used as a driver for existing physics based magnetospheric models. The HHMS also has the potential to give a predicted solar wind time series at other locations such as Mercury or Mars. The HHMS has two modes of operation. The background mode uses only the SSCS maps as described above. This mode computes an evolving background state of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere (it could be extended outward). In the event mode, a second type of input is combined with the background mode to simulate the effect of solar transient events by perturbing the input boundary of the MHD solar wind model directly. At its current grid resolution of 5° x5° (to match available source surface maps) the HHMS runs about 800 times faster than real time on a single node of SEC's Linux Beowulf cluster, thus making ensemble forecasting highly feasible.

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