Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufmsm22a0231t&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #SM22A-0231
Physics
2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 2736 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions
Scientific paper
Since the solar wind controls magnetospheric activity, solar wind measurements upstream of the Earth near the L1 libration point can predict geomagnetic activity about one hour in advance. We have developed a prediction model for the Dst index using the solar wind as the sole input. Our current model is operating in real-time, using real-time solar wind data from ACE, which is positioned around the L1 libration point. The structure of solar wind near the L1 libration point and the evolution of solar wind structures from the libration point to the Earth can degrade such predictions. However, we have found that the lack of accurate solar wind measurements is the most important factor limiting accurate Dst forecasts in real time. During the past year neither the real time ACE measurements or the near real time Dst measurements have been accurate and predictions of Dst have been bad. We will show examples of our real-time forecast and the physical basis of our model and the implication of the results will be discussed.
Li Xiaoliang
Temerin Michael
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