A New Method for Predicting the Dst Index Using Solar Wind Parameters

Details A New Method for Predicting the Dst Index Using Solar Wind Parameters A New Method for Predicting the Dst Index Using Solar Wind Parameters

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa51b0238d&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA51B-0238

Physics

2722 Forecasting, 2736 Magnetosphere/Ionosphere Interactions, 2778 Ring Current, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

Previous methods of forecasting Dst from solar wind parameters have been limited by the need for continuous updating with observed Dst. The method proposed here eliminates this limitation by separating the empirical relation between the magnetosphere-solar wind power transfer function, epsilon and Dst into a driving term and a decay term and estimating the magnitude, delay time, and decay time of the Dst index using the epsilon function for the driving term. A postdiction of Dst for the period 1999-2003 showed a prediction efficiency of 91% and a linear correlation of 0.86 with the observed WDC-Kyoto Dst index.

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