A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior

Details A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior

2009-08-28

arxiv.org/abs/0908.4207v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that we believe makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for various simple cases.

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