Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008ge%26ae..48..463k&link_type=abstract
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, Volume 48, Issue 4, pp.463-471
Physics
1
94.20.Wq
Scientific paper
An index of cosmic ray scintillation introduced previously is verified. This procedure has been performed within the scope of the long-term full-scale monitoring of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in the real time regime. The 5-min data of the global network of high-latitude neutron monitors at Tixie Bay (Apatity) and Oulu (Finland) stations during the last four solar cycles (cycles 20 23), i.e., during the entire period of data registration with a high (5 min) resolution, have been used. The relationship between the amplitude-frequency-time structure of a precursor in the GCR scintillation index and the soliton-like structure of the heliospheric current sheet during the disturbed period has been established. This indicates that the precursor is of a coherent origin. Only the presence of a coherent process—quasi-week variation—makes it fundamentally possible to predict heliospheric storms. Finally, the justifiability of the effective prediction of heliospheric storms (˜80%) has been obtained based on the long-term cosmic ray monitoring during cycle 23.
Kozlov Valerii V.
Kozlov Vladimir I.
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