A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts

Details A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts

2003-08-14

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0308057v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Submitted to ASL

Scientific paper

10.1002/asl.69

We present a new framework for the assessment and calibration of medium range
ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximising the
likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and
leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertainty.

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