Nonlinear Sciences – Chaotic Dynamics
Scientific paper
2007-04-24
Nonlinear Sciences
Chaotic Dynamics
16 pages, 15 figures
Scientific paper
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown deterministic chaos motivated by experimental findings of antibody-dependent-enhancement (ADE). Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which is common knowledge among field researchers in dengue, we find a deterministically chaotic attractor in the more realistic parameter region of reduced infectivity on secondary infection (''inverse ADE'' parameter region). This is realistic for dengue fever since on second infection people are more likely to be hospitalized, hence do not contribute to the force of infection as much as people with first infection. Our finding has wider implications beyond dengue in any multi-strain epidemiological systems with altered infectivity upon secondary infection, since we can relax the condition of rather high infectivity on secondary infection previously required for deterministic chaos. For dengue the finding of wide ranges of chaotic attractors open new ways to analysis of existing data sets.
Aguiar Maíra
Stollenwerk Nico
No associations
LandOfFree
A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-225455