A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system

Details A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system

Feb 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3403712l&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 3, CiteID L03712

Physics

Geophysics

6

Global Change: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Nonlinear Geophysics: Critical Phenomena, Paleoceanography: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (1605), Mathematical Geophysics: Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475)

Scientific paper

We assess the proximity of a system to a bifurcation point using a degenerate fingerprinting method that estimates the declining decay rate of fluctuations in a time series as an indicator of approaching a critical state. The method is modified by employing Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) which improves the estimation of short-term decay, especially in climate records which generally possess power-law correlations. When the modified method is applied to GENIE-1 model output that simulates collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the bifurcation point is correctly anticipated. In Greenland ice core paleotemperature data, for which the conventional degenerate fingerprinting is not applicable due to the short length of the series, the modified method detects the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. The technique could in principle be used to anticipate future bifurcations in the climate system, but this will require high-resolution time series of the relevant data.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-739624