A model of variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Physics

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513), Oceanography: Physical: Decadal Ocean Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 4215)

Scientific paper

The major source of interannual variability in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is associated with the strength of the winter surface westerly winds over the Ocean. During the last century, the NAO has shown pronounced multi-annual and multi-decadal variations, fluctuations that have been accompanied by changes in the marine and terrestrial ecosystems of the North Atlantic region. This paper presents a simple model which reproduces the major trends in the NAO index from 1866 to 2004. The model is based on climatic resonators that are forced by the global mean temperature and the Southern Oscillation of the Pacific Ocean (SO). The ocean component of the model shows similar variations to time-series from the North Atlantic.

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