A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

Details A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

2011-11-22

arxiv.org/abs/1111.5177v3

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

25 pages, 9 figures; in press, Climate Dynamics

Scientific paper

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO2-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850-2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO2 concentration of 2.0 +- 0.3 K (mean +- standard error), of which about 50% is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30% with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20% with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1% yearly rise of CO2 concentration) is 1.5 +- 0.2 K. The temperature rise from 1820-1950 can be attributed for about 70% to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO2-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950-1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 +- 0.4 K and 1.9 +- 0.3 K, respectively.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-553245