A dynamic model of the high-latitude geomagnetic field

Physics

Scientific paper

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2475 Polar Cap Ionosphere, 2708 Current Systems (2409), 2722 Forecasting, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

A model for the time-dependence of the high-latitude ground magnetic field and its time rate of change, dB/dt, is presented. The model coefficients are computed at an annular grid from magnetic field measurements from the IMAGE meridional array. The nonlinear response at high activity is represented by a local-linear model. The magnetic field model is driven by real-time solar wind/IMF datastreams from the ACE spacecraft. We report on the field response during isolated substorms and the storms of October-November 2003. In those events the model prediction error for the field and its time rate of change is measured as a function of geomagnetic coordinates and activity level. Based on the predicted dB/dt we estimate the GIC disturbance level and compare with GIC measurements at the Finnish power grid.

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