A new technique for short-term forecast of auroral activity

Details A new technique for short-term forecast of auroral activity A new technique for short-term forecast of auroral activity

Mar 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30e..62l&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp. 62-1, CiteID 1258, DOI 10.1029/2002GL016505

Physics

4

Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Airglow And Aurora, Magnetospheric Physics: Plasma Waves And Instabilities, Magnetospheric Physics: Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

An age-old challenge in space research is the search for an accurate prediction algorithm of auroral disturbances in the complex space environment system. Based on six months of observations from the Ultraviolet Imager on the Polar satellite, we have conducted a statistical study of four attributes of over 9000 auroral activity sites. These attributes are area, power, and their rates of change. The results provide us with a new technique to forecast auroral activity by setting up criteria on these activity attributes. The derived criteria for predicting 1 TJ total auroral energy dissipation at an activity site give a probability of correct high dissipation prediction of 0.85, a probability of correct low dissipation prediction of 0.95, a true skill score of 0.80, and an averaged advance warning time of 42 min. Similar prediction statistics are found for 0.1 and 10 TJ energy dissipation predictions. The prediction statistics indicate a high degree of forecast accuracy for this new technique.

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