Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 1000 Years

Details Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 1000 Years Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 1000 Years

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsh41a..03n&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SH41A-03

Physics

1637 Regional Climate Change, 1650 Solar Variability (7537), 3305 Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), 3344 Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900)

Scientific paper

This is a presentation of results from a recently released report written by a committee established by the National Research Council and chaired by the speaker. The report was titled the same as the title of this talk. It focused on the methods of reconstructing the large scales of such surface temperature fields, since there has been considerable discussion in the scientific literature, assessments such as the IPCC, the popular press, blogs and even Congressional Hearings. The so-called `hockey stick' curve indicating a gradual cooling from the beginning of the record at about 1000AD to roughly 150 years ago when the curve take a steep upward trend (the so-called global warming). The original publications by Mann, Bradley and Hughes were careful to present and emphasize error margins that have been ignored by many in the controversy. The Committee found that numerous subsequent publications have reported reconstructions that utilized different data and different statistical assumptions. These all fall within the error margins of the original studies. While the committee has some reservations about the period prior to the year 1600AD, it still concludes that it is plausible that surface temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades are plausibly the warmest for any such comparable period in the last 1000 years.

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