Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24

Details Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24 Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsh21a0330h&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SH21A-0330

Physics

1530 Rapid Time Variations, 7536 Solar Activity Cycle (2162), 7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average similar in size to cycles 21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160±25.

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