On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors

Details On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.506..169l&link_type=abstract

In: Solar variability: from core to outer frontiers. The 10th European Solar Physics Meeting, 9 - 14 September 2002, Prague, Cze

Physics

Space Weather, Technical Application, Solar-Terrestrial Connections

Scientific paper

There is the considerable progress in development of geomagnetic disturbances forecast technique, in the necessary time, by solar activity phenomena last years. The possible relationship between violations of the traffic safety terms (VTS) in East Siberian Railway during 1986-1999 and the space weather factors was investigated. The overall number of cases under consideration is equal to 11575. By methods of correlation and spectral analysis it was shown, that statistics of VTS has not a random and it's character is probably caused by space weather factors. The principal difference between rhythmic of VTS by purely technical reasons (MECH) (failures in mechanical systems) and, that of VTS caused by wrong operations of a personnel (MAN), is noted. Increase of sudden storm commencements number results in increase of probability of mistakable actions of an operator. Probability of violations in mechanical systems increases with increase of number of quiet geomagnetic conditions. This, in its turn, dictate different approach to the ordered rows of MECH and MAN data when forecasting the unfavourable periods as the priods of increased risk in working out a wrong decision by technological process participants. The advances in forecasting of geomagnetic environment technique made possible to start construction of systems of the operative informing about unfavourable factors of space weather for the interested organizations.

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